Quick Diachronics Challenge

[conlang-creature]

I'm thinking about *aɹ̠˔tə˥, but this would make three guesses in a row, so take it or leave it.

Reasoning:

Spoiler:

ə: whatever this vowel is has to be able to turn into a and ʉ, this is a good middle ground
ɹ̠˔: there are three ways this consonant changes: s, ɬ, and l. The IPA points overwhelmingly to the 6 sounds in the dental to post-alveolar section. After some deliberation, I decided that ɹ̠˔ sounded the most likely to transform as such.

[Arayaz]

I'm thinking about *aɹ̠˔tə˥, but this would make three guesses in a row, so take it or leave it.

Reasoning:

Spoiler:

ə: whatever this vowel is has to be able to turn into a and ʉ, this is a good middle ground
ɹ̠˔: there are three ways this consonant changes: s, ɬ, and l. The IPA points overwhelmingly to the 6 sounds in the dental to post-alveolar section. After some deliberation, I decided that ɹ̠˔ sounded the most likely to transform as such.

conlang-creature:

Spoiler:

Almost perfect ─ same issue as Visions, that the first consonant isn't quite correct. I'm not quite sure what advice I should give to both of you, but Visions is correct that it's a geminate, and in fact, their most recent guess is an existing intermediate form. My biggest hint to you is that in [es.ttaː], it's not just the /s/ that is a reflex of it, but also the first /t/.

At this point it feels like the end of last round, where it's essentially guesswork. If others agree, it might be a good idea to end the round here, in which case the following ranking would apply:

1. Visions
2. thethief3
2. conlang-creature
4. Sketch
5. Creyeditor
6. VaptuantaDoi

thethief and conlang-creature are essentially tied by my judgement.

[Arayaz]

Since it's been over a week since the last guess was made, and it's basically becoming guesswork, I'm officially ending this round, with Visions as the winner!

The actual protoform was aθːtə˥.

Spoiler:

The initial /h/ in some forms is areal prosthesis.

The first vowel underwent areal fronting to /æ/ or /e/.

In the first four languages, *θ became *ɬ. In the first, it then became *l; in the second and third, the *ɬt metathesized to *tɬ; in the third, the *tɬ subsequently underwent intervocalic voicing. The fourth split from the third and also underwent devoicing (*dɮ → *tɬ) and epenthesis (*tɬ → *taɬ).
Meanwhile, in the fifth language, *θ became *t in the onset and *s in the coda; and in the sixth language, it became *s in all circumstances.

The final vowel was lost in the third and fourth languages; its high tone was replaced by length in the first and fifth languages; and it raised and rounded to something like *ʊ̈ and then became *ʉ due to its length in the first language; and in the second and sixth languages, it lowered to something around *ɐ, then fronted in the second language.

I didn't write this very well, so if anyone has any questions/doesn't understand part of it, just ask me

[Visions1]

My turn to have a go!

1) ūtəXā
2) ʌtiqū
3) ʌtiʧijɵ
4) utjɛɕo
5) oteçjo
6) otecço

[jimydog000]

1) ūtəXā
2) ʌtiqū
3) ʌtiʧijɵ
4) utjɛɕo
5) oteçjo
6) otecço

Are we to assume the macron diacritic is mid-tone or is it length?

[Visions1]

Length.

[thethief3]

*utéqijo
1 shifts stress to the initial syllable and lengthens it
4/5/6 retain conservative second syllable stress and collapse the third syllable because of it and then palatise the *q
3 also palatises the q and centralises final vowels
1/2 might form a subgroup based on *j collapse

[Creyeditor]

My first guess:
otekjō

[Flavia]

*au̯tekʲoː

[jimydog000]

Spoiler:

*ʊɑ̆tjekiao

[Visions1]

Thief:

Spoiler:

Not too shabby! You're extra, though.
1 and 2 are a group, but not for your reason.
4 and 5 and 6 are also, but again, not for your reason.

Conclusion for all of you: It looks convoluted, but it's much simpler. Peel them back in layers, as there are areal changes.

Ranking:
Creyditor
Thief
Flavia and Jim tie

[Kesshin]

Spoiler:

ətiʃkijʉ

1. like thief said, shifting stress to first syllable, but also might be closing the mouth a little bit(dunno the word for it, maybe labializing?)
2. stress kept on last syllable but /i/ is dropped and the original /k/ becomes /q/, uvularizing(?)
3. i'm gonna be honest, i have no idea how there's a ʧ here and in none of the others. Maybe the sibilant moved towards the end for 4, 5, and 6?
4. the mouth kinda drops a little bit, getting rid of the /ʃ/ but keeping the /i/ forming the basis of /j/, chance of sibilant movement towards the end of the word
5. i'm thinking there might have been an in between word for 5 and 6 so the schwa can become /u/ or it's adjacents, then /o/,
6. consonant cluster implies vowel dropping, tongue moves upwards for /j/ becoming fricative /ʝ/, then it moves forward into /ç/, basically the opposite of 4

Just a kind of wild guess though. I can tell there are some remnants of a sibilant in the latter half though.

[Visions1]

Kesshin:
A couple things you did were one step forward, and most of the other things you did were three steps back.
Your lemmas for 6 and 4 are wrong. As for 3, just think about it and it will be obvious.
Pay attention the conclusion I wrote above.

Note: I'm sorry if I end up making anyone feel bad during this game.

Current :
Creyditor
Thief
Flavia and Jim tie
Kesshin

[Kesshin]

Kesshin:
A couple things you did were one step forward, and most of the other things you did were three steps back.
Your lemmas for 6 and 4 are wrong. As for 3, just think about it and it will be obvious.
Pay attention the conclusion I wrote above.

Note: I'm sorry if I end up making anyone feel bad during this game.

Current :
Creyditor
Thief
Flavia and Jim tie
Kesshin

You're fine lol, this is my first time trying this kind of thing out, I didn't expect it to go very well

Spoiler:

otisqjo

I think I see what happens in three?? Maybe?

[Arayaz]

I'll try to get a guess in later today.

[Arayaz]

My turn to have a go!

1) ūtəXā
2) ʌtiqū
3) ʌtiʧijɵ
4) utjɛɕo
5) oteçjo
6) otecço

*au̯teqʲo

[Visions1]

Kesshin:
Your guess is much better, but no, you still don't get 3.
I told everyone 4, 5, and 6 are a group. I did not tell you how basal/coronal they are.

Conclusion: The last syllable is messed up pretty much the same way by everyone.

Ranking:

Theif and Crey (on second examination, you're about equal)
Arayaz (I want to add you to Jim and Flavia's little hoedown, but you are a bit better)
Jim and Flavia tie.
Kes (I'd put you much higher, but for the extra)

[Arayaz]

Guess 2: *otejqjo IGNORE THIS

[jimydog000]

Spoiler:

*ʌtekio Oops, 4, 5, and 6 group should be *otecjo.

[Visions1]

Jim:
Your high-level groupings are incorrect.
The mid-level grouping on the right is technically correct, but is more complicated than you think.
I told everyone that you have to look for areal changes, and peel them back one layer by one, if you want to do it right. It doesn't look like you did that here. I hope others are doing that right now, or else we're in for the long haul.
Good on you for simplifying in any case.
As I said before, the last syllable is messed up pretty much the same way by everyone.

Conclusion: I'm paranoid that I'm giving too much away, but now I think I didn't say enough. Should I give more info?

Rankings:
Thief and Crey
Arayaz (I want to add you to Jim and Flavia's little hoedown, but you are a bit better)
Jim and Flavia tie.
Kes (I'd put you much higher, but for the extra)